KMAN Publication Inc. (KMANPUB) Journal of Assessment and Research in Applied Counseling (JARAC) 8 Serial Number 29 2026 04 01 Machine‑Learning Prediction of Academic Stress from Working Memory Load and Neuroticism Facets Machine‑Learning Prediction of Academic Stress from Working Memory Load and Neuroticism Facets 1 11 10.61838/kman.jarac.5166 EN Journal Article 2025 12 23 <p><strong>Objective:</strong> To employ advanced machine learning algorithms to predict the severity of academic stress among university students by synthesizing metrics of working memory load and specific facets of the neuroticism personality trait.</p> <p><strong>Methods and Materials: </strong>This predictive cross-sectional study evaluated a sample of N=452 Brazilian university students. Data were collected utilizing the Perception of Academic Stress Scale, a dual N-back task to measure working memory capacity, and the NEO Personality Inventory-Revised to assess neuroticism facets. The predictive modeling utilized several machine learning algorithms, with a primary focus on eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost). The dataset was split into an 80%training set with 10-fold cross-validation and a 20%hold-out test set, and feature importance was interpreted using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values.</p> <p><strong>Findings: </strong>The XGBoost algorithm yielded the most robust predictive performance, explaining a significant portion of the variance in the test set (R^2=0.58, MAE=4.12, RMSE=5.36). SHAP analysis revealed that the Vulnerability to Stress facet was the strongest positive predictor of academic stress (mean absolute SHAP = 2.84), whereas Working Memory Capacity emerged as the strongest negative, protective predictor (mean absolute SHAP = 1.95), specifically when surpassing a standardized threshold of Z=0.50.</p> <p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Machine learning architectures successfully demonstrate that academic stress is deeply driven by non-linear interactions between a student’s intrinsic emotional vulnerability and their momentary cognitive working memory capacity.</p> https://journals.kmanpub.com/index.php/jarac/article/download/5166/9453