Modeling Innovation Adoption through Reinforcement Learning: The Influence of Risk Perception and Change Readiness
Keywords:
Innovation Adoption, Reinforcement Learning, Change Readiness, Risk PerceptionAbstract
Objective: The objective of this study was to elucidate the temporal dynamics of organizational innovation adoption by integrating empirical psychological metrics of risk perception and change readiness with a computational reinforcement learning framework.
Methods and Materials: This study utilized a cross-sectional design, sampling mid-to-senior level managers from the corporate sector in South Africa. Primary data regarding individual risk perception, baseline change readiness, and behavioral adoption intent were collected utilizing a structured, validated online questionnaire. The data analysis phase employed a novel hybrid methodology: inferential statistics via Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) were integrated with a mathematical Reinforcement Learning (RL) architecture. Specifically, a -learning algorithm was developed where the empirical psychometric scores directly parameterized the internal variables of synthetic agents, mapping readiness to the learning rate ( ) and risk perception to the environmental penalty weight ( ) and temporal discount factor ( ).
Findings: The empirical baseline analysis revealed a strong positive correlation between change readiness and the final innovation adoption rate ( ), while risk perception exerted a severe suppressive effect on the ultimate probability of adoption ( ). When mapped to the computational simulation, the fully optimized -learning model significantly outperformed static predictive models, successfully accounting for of the variance in actual innovation adoption trajectories ( ). The algorithmic simulation accurately demonstrated that agents with high change readiness exhibited an accelerated , quickly escalating their expected utility for adoption, whereas high risk perception effectively delayed transition by mathematically magnifying the operational penalty ( ) and minimizing the perceived future value of the new technology ( ).
Conclusion: The findings provides a highly accurate, dynamic computational model that predicts the temporal evolution of human behavioral adaptation during organizational technological transitions.
Downloads
References
Asayesh, M. H., & Parsakia, K. (2025). Paradoxical Timetable Therapy and Psychological Problems: Mechanisms of Change and Implications. Mental Health and Lifestyle Journal, 3(3), 1-21. https://doi.org/10.61838/mhlj.3.3.11
Chughtai, M. S., Syed, F., Naseer, S., & Chinchilla, N. (2024). Role of adaptive leadership in learning organizations to boost organizational innovations with change self-efficacy. Current Psychology, 43(33), 27262-27281. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12144-023-04669-z
El‐Ashry, A. M., & Abdelaal, H. M. (2025). The Mediating Role of Mindfulness Between Impulsive Sensation Seeking and Readiness for Change Among Clients With Substance Use Disorders. Journal of Psychiatric and Mental Health Nursing. https://doi.org/10.1111/jpm.13172
Emami, D., Ahmadi, M., & Ghaffari, R. (2024). Presenting a Pattern of Flexible working Hours in Government Organizations with an Emphasis on Increasing the Productivity Level of Academic Employees in the Ministry of Cooperation, Labor and Social Welfare [Research Article]. Iranian Journal of Educational Sociology, 7(1), 57-65. https://doi.org/10.61838/kman.ijes.7.1.6
García-Morales, V. J., Matías-Reche, F., & Hurtado-Torres, N. (2023). Influence of transformational leadership on organizational innovation and performance depending on the level of organizational learning in the pharmaceutical sector. Journal of Organizational Change Management, 21(2), 188-212.
Ginting, J. G. (2023). Organizational culture: An overview and bibliometric analysis. Asian Journal of Economics and Business Management, 2(2), 534-542. https://doi.org/10.53402/ajebm.v2i2.318
Han, F. (2024). The Impact of the Book Publishing Transmedia Storytelling Model On business Performance: The moderating Role of the Innovation Environment. Journal of Organizational Change Management, 37(8), 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1108/jocm-07-2023-0289
Hosseini, F., Mohtaram, M., & Tozih, A. (2025). The structural relationship modeling of teachers' readiness for change and type of organizational culture in education of Fars province. Sociology of Education, 11(1), 107-121. https://doi.org/10.22034/ijes.2024.2008848.1450
Kumar, A., Bhattacharjee, D., & Khanra, S. (2025). Assessing the Interplay of Religious Coping, Cravings, and Readiness for Change in Individuals with Opioid and Alcohol Dependence: A Prospective Study.
Lawrence, E. T., Tworoger, L. C., Jones, J. P., Mujtaba, B. G., & Carter, S. L. (2023). A Coaching Co-Design: Fostering Change, Innovation, and Collaboration. Organization Development Journal, 41(1). https://www.proquest.com/openview/56ae8b9d76a2014f91666d2e09852d5c/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=36482
Lotfi Jalalabadi, M., Ahmadi, H., Ravaei, S., & Gholami, M. (2023). The Effect of Organizational Vitality on Organizational Innovation with the Mediating Role of Change Acceptance. Karafan Scientific Quarterly, 20(Special Issue), 183-203. https://karafan.tvu.ac.ir/article_158423.html
Malik, M. (2024). Digital Leadership, Business Model Innovation and Organizational Change: Role of Leader in Steering Digital Transformation. Benchmarking an International Journal. https://doi.org/10.1108/bij-04-2023-0283
Meyer, D., Mumtaz, S., & Selvarajah, C. (2024). How does human relations climate and organizational support affect readiness to change? The mediating role of employee participation and leadership excellence. Global Business and Organizational Excellence, 43(2), 79-91. https://doi.org/10.1002/joe.22223
Mir Mohammadian Tooteh Kaleh, S. Z., Alvadi, H., & Zamani Tooni, A. (2024). Investigating the Impact of Human Resource Management Practices on Readiness for Change with the Mediating Role of Emotional Commitment and Hierarchical Culture at the University of Tehran. Tenth National Conference on Interdisciplinary Research in Management and Humanities,
Mohammadi, L., & Smith, J. H. (2024). From Resistance to Renewal: Strategies for Managing Inertia and Supporting Innovation in Public Organizations. Journal of Organizational Change Management, 37(1), 15-32. https://doi.org/10.1108/JOCM-09-2023-0271
Moqaddamerad, S., & Tapinos, E. (2023). Managing business model innovation uncertainties in 5G technology: a future-oriented sensemaking perspective. R&D Management, 53(2), 244-259. https://doi.org/10.1111/radm.12559
Motavalli, F., Yazkasti, A., & Sadeqiarani, Z. (2022). Drivers and Barriers of creativity in the organization: Meta-analysis of Iranian studies. Journal of Innovation and Creativity in Human Science, 11(3), 189-222. http://journal.bpj.ir/article_689970_ef81e708b47a97038e5d46c9fb04936a.pdf
Nazari, H., Shiri, N., & Khoshmaram, M. (2023). Role of Entrepreneurial Management Components in Organizational Entrepreneurship Development: A Case of Agricultural Cooperatives in Kermanshah Township. Co - Operation and Agriculture, 11(44), 1-16. https://www.magiran.com/paper/2535569
Pedraza-Rodríguez, J. A., Ruiz-Vélez, A., Sánchez-Rodríguez, M. I., & Fernández-Esquinas, M. (2023). Management Skills and Organizational Culture as Sources of Innovation for Firms in Peripheral Regions. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 191. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2023.122518
Primandaru, N., & Kairupan, D. J. (2024). Leadership Styles and Change Readiness: Improving Employee Performance During the COVID-19 Pandemic. Jurnal Economia, 20(2), 287-298. https://doi.org/10.21831/economia.v20i2.43870
Saeedi motlagh, M. h., & Karimishad, F. (2022). Open innovation through the lens of the home appliance industry. Journal of Innovation Ecosystem, 2(4), 37-52. https://doi.org/10.22111/innoeco.2023.44091.1048
Shaturaev, J. (2023). A Dual Mediation Model for Evaluating the Impact of Organizational Change on Employee Innovation Performance. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202311.0043.v1
Texeira-Quiros, J., Justino, M. d. R., Antunes, M. G., Mucharreira, P. R., & Nunes, A. d. T. (2022). Effects of Innovation, Total Quality Management, and Internationalization on Organizational Performance of Higher Education Institutions [Original Research]. Frontiers in psychology, 13. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyg.2022.869638
Trihadi Pudiawan, E., Sebastiaan, v. D., Arnold, J., & Irwan Adi, E. (2023). Digital marketing innovation and firm performance: the role of decision-making comprehensiveness in dynamic environments. Asia Pacific Journal of Marketing and Logistics, ahead-of-print(ahead-of-print). https://doi.org/10.1108/APJML-01-2023-0097
You, S. W., & Park, J. H. (2024). The Impact of the High Commitment HRM System on Employees' Innovation Behavior: The Mediating Role of Acceptance of Organizational Change and the Moderating Role of HRM System Strength. The Academic Society of Global Business Administration, 21(1), 56-85. https://doi.org/10.38115/asgba.2024.21.1.56
Yuan, A., & Chayanuvat, A. (2022). A Learning Organization: Conditions for Success of the Excellent Schools in Hunan, China. Asia Social Issues, 15(5), 252762. https://doi.org/10.48048/asi.2022.252762
Zhang, X., Chu, Z., Ren, L., & Xing, J. (2023). Open innovation and sustainable competitive advantage: The role of organizational learning. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 186, 122114. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2022.122114
Zihan, W., Makhbul, Z. K. M., & Alam, S. S. (2024). Green human resource management in practice: Assessing the impact of readiness and corporate social responsibility on organizational change. Sustainability, 16(3), 1153. https://doi.org/10.3390/su16031153
Downloads
Additional Files
Published
Submitted
Revised
Accepted
Issue
Section
How to Cite
